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2006 NFL Regular Season recap. Part 1 - AFCby Red Beard 1/6/2007

Well, another NFL regular season has come and gone and for yet another season the NFC was a mess and clearly the inferior conference. This time last year, we were all gearing up for an NFC Wild Card match up of Washington and Tampa Bay. This year, those two teams combined for a whopping 9 wins and both will have picks in the top 6 for this coming draft. Before the regular season officially wrapped up there was the possibility that a 10 win AFC team could have missed the playoffs. Luckily things worked out and that was not the case. Let’s take a look at each division and see how things shook down for the year.

AFC East

No real surprise that the New England Patriots came away with yet another division title as they prove year in and year out that they have a system, both on and off the field, that fosters success. It is really a wonder why more teams do not try to emulate the success of Belicheck and the Patriots.

The two biggest surprises in the AFC East were the New York Jets and their playoff birth and the lack of success of the Miami Dolphins. The Jets finished the 2005 season with a 4-12 record, which was good for a tie with 4 other teams for the third worst record in the league. The biggest key to their success was the addition of HC Eric Mangini who is a Bill Belicheck disciple. The stat that sticks out most to me about the 2006 Jets compared to the 2005 Jets is their road record. In 2005 the Jets were winless in all 8 of the road games, only one of which came by less than 10 points. The 2006 Jets improved their road record to a very solid 6-2, including a sweep of the division.

Many people talked about the Miami Dolphins as a team to make a push for the playoffs in 2006 after a strong finish in 2005. The addition of QB’s Culpepper and Harrington looked to put the Dolphins in prime position. As it was, Culpepper was nothing short of a disaster. Joey Harrington showed signs of what made him a top pick by the Lions especially in the Thanksgiving Day game against those same Lions where he threw for 3 TD’s and led the Dolphins to their fourth straight win. The proverbial wheels fell off the wagon from then on as Miami won just 1 more game the rest of the year. Now they are without a head coach thanks to Nick Saban abandoning them as he ran back to the college ranks. If the Dolphins are smart, they will bring in a first time HC that has plenty of NFL experience to take over. Look for a Ken Whisenhunt type guy to come in.

The Buffalo Bills finished 7-9 in the first year of the Dick Jauron era, which is a two game improvement over the 2005 Bills. Those two games can be accounted for with a two game improvement in the division. They have a young QB in JP Losman who had a respectable 2006 throwing for 3051 yards, 19 TD’s, and an 84.9 QB rating. One thing Losman really needs to work on is his fumbling as he coughed it up 13 times. The running game is anchored by Willis McGahee who fell just short of his third straight 1000 yard rushing year with 990 yards despite missing two games. The defense played average but with LB London Fletcher and CB Nate Clements as free agents they may have some big holes to fill this offseason.

AFC North

This division has seen the biggest changes in the AFC from 2005. In 2005 both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh finished the year with identical 11-5 records but both teams finished 8-8 in 2006 and failed to make the playoffs. The big story of 2006 has been the return to dominance of the Baltimore Ravens.

The Ravens of 2006 improved by 7 games over their 2005 unit. Their success cannot be pinpointed on just one thing. They brought in former NFL MVP Steve McNair to inject some life into this traditionally vapid offensive attack. They went and drafted a big fat body in Haloti Ngata to play in front of Ray Lewis and allow him more free range to make plays. Mid way through the season HC Brian Billick fired Jim Fassel and assumed play-calling duties. You also have to factor in the lack of injuries and distractions compared to 2005. Add all those factors together and you have yourself a 7 game improvement. They should be in good shape for the 2007 season as the only really big free agent is LB Adalius Thomas but with names like Lewis, Reed, Suggs, McAllister, Ngata and crew, the loss of Thomas may not hurt as much as people think.

The Bengals have been the poster children of how not to act off the field. You have Odell Thurman and his 4 game suspension for violation of the substance abuse that turned into a season long suspension after his drunk driving arrest. There is also WR Chris Henry who has been arrested 4 times just to name a few. On the field, the Bengals have been the poster children for inconsistency. They started off the year by winning their first three games but then went on to lose 5 of their next six then follow that up with a 4 game winning streak only to end the year losing their last three. Looking at it further, all but two of their losses came by 8 points or less. Just a suggestion to Marvin Lewis, it might be time to start bringing in high character guys.

The Steelers got caught up in the post Super Bowl victory hangover that has plagued a few SB winners of the past. You knew things were going to be interesting starting with Ben Roethlisberger’s motorcycle accident. Ben missed the first game of the year and when he came back he led the team to three losses by throwing 0 TD’s and 7 INT’s. Things would get worse as they went on to lose three of their next four including a 13-20 loss to the Oakland Raiders where Ben threw 4 INT’s. This will be a very interesting offseason with the departure of HC Bill Cowher as the Steelers will be in a position they have only been in twice since 1969 and that is without a head coach.

The Browns are back where they usually are and that is brining up the rear. Things looked up as they hoped to improve on their 6-10 record of 2005 with the addition of Willie McGinest and a healthy Braylon Edwards and Kellen Winslow Jr. Things just did not work out as they finished 2006 with a 4-12 record. The biggest need on the offense is on the line, a unit that gave up 53 sacks. Look for them to scoop up Wisconsin Tackle Joe Thomas if he is on the board when it comes time for them to pick in this coming draft.

AFC South

This year, the top teams of the AFC South came back to earth while the bottom feeders slowly improved in 2006.

The Colts finished 12-4 and secured yet another AFC South division title. They started the year off winning their first 9 games only to stumble down the stretch never winning more than 1 game in a row the rest of the year. As usual the offense was stellar with Manning, Harrison and Wayne leading the way. The loss of Edgerrin James did not hurt nearly as much as many would have guessed as rookie Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes did their parts and filled in nicely. The defense was still the Achilles heel of this team. Just look back to their December 12th game at Jacksonville where they gave up 375 rushing yards to the Jaguars. They were 29 yards shy of giving up 100 rushing yards to three different backs in the same game. As it stands they finished dead last against the run and that should be their main area of focus this offseason.

The Jaguars were a major disappointment this year as they dropped form a 2005 record of 12-4 to missing the playoffs at 8-8 in 2006. They had their destiny in their hands but crumbled at the end of the year losing their last 3 games. The road was none too kind for the Jaguars as they finished a sad 2-6 for the year away from home. It appears that what the Jaguars are really missing is a superstar QB and a stud WR. While they have both Byron Leftwich and David Garrard to choose from, neither one has the tools to really be a dominant QB in the league. The receiving corps has some talent as they have spent their last three number 1 draft picks on WR’s Matt Jones and Reggie Williams and TE Mercedes Lewis. While Jones and Williams have shown signs of brilliance, they simply have not gotten the ball enough as they combined for 93 catches for 1259 yards and 8 TD’s. Given the investments put into these two, each should be able to get near those types of numbers individually.

The Tennessee Titans ended up being one of the biggest surprise stories of the year as they made a realistic playoff push in 2006. They did fall short but not before winning 6 of their last 7 games. They look to have hit the jackpot in last year’s draft, as they were able to get the 2006 Offensive Rookie of the Year Vince Young. In all honesty, Young’s numbers were very lackluster but as a QB in the NFL he did the most important thing and that was win ball games. He started off slow losing his first two starts but was able to lead the Titans to wins in 8 of their last 11 games of the year. His stats look like this, 2199 pass yards, 12 pass TD’s, 13 INT’s, a completion % of just over 51% and a QB rating of 66.7%. He also ran for 552 yards and 7 TD’s. With the right coaching he should be able to avoid an early career like Vick. While there is no shortage of Vick hype, he has not been able to win and has failed to improve in the passing game. All eyes will be on Young next year and I for one am pulling for the young man and hope he improves by leaps and bounds in the passing game.

The Houston Texans took a big gamble in last years draft when they passed on not only Reggie Bush but also Vince Young in favor of DE Mario Williams. Williams had a decent season for a rookie DE on a bad team but given his #1 pick status you cannot argue that he has been a disappointment as he finished with just 4.5 sacks. The fact of the matter is the biggest draft impact for the Texans was that of LB DeMeco Ryans who won the Defensive Rookie of the Year award. Ryans led the team with 155 total tackles and added 3.5 sacks an INT and 5 passes defended. If the Texans can find some secondary help then the defense should be competitive if not dominant for years to come. The offense was again the weak spot of this team. QB David Carr looked brilliant early in the year and ended with 2767 yards, 68.3 completion %, 11 TD’s, 12 INT’s, and a QB rating of 82.1. The running game is in dire need of a franchise back as it is apparent neither Ron Dayne, Samkon Gado, nor Wali Lundy fit the bill. But first, they need to address their offensive line as teams like Arizona have proven, you can have all the weapons in the world at the skill positions but without effective line play all is lost.

AFC West

The San Diego Chargers have been the toast of the league thanks in huge part to the record setting performance of league MVP RB LaDainian Tomlinson. LT ran for 1815 yards and set the regular season record for TD’s with 32, 3 of which came as a receiver. Adding in his receiving yards and LT contributed 2323 yards. We can’t forget that he threw for 2 TD’s as well. Were it not for the steroid suspension of Shawne Merriman, the Charges could very well have had the Offensive and Defensive players of the year. They will be in great shape for the 2007 season as there are no major pieces eligible for free agency.

The Kansas City Chiefs started off the Herm Edwards era with a 9-7 record and a playoff birth. It is no secret that they rely heavily on the legs of RB Larry Johnson, who set an NFL record with 416 carries. Johnson ran for 1789 yards and 17 TD’s as he proved that he is not a one hit wonder. It’s painful to think what may happen if Priest Holmes comes back. They have tried dearly to improve the defense as they have used each of their last three first round draft picks on defense. Last years pick, Penn State DE Tamba Hali, ended up with 58 tackles and 8 sacks. If the Chiefs aren’t careful their lack of offensive picks will catch up with them but when the defense is still the weakest link it will be hard to argue if they go defense again in the coming draft.

The Denver Broncos sure fell apart after starting the year 7-2 by finishing 9-7. I understand the thinking of wanting to get the young quarterback some game experience but I do not understand the timing of the switch from Jake Plummer to Jay Cutler in the middle of a season where they were in excellent position for a playoff spot. While Plummer was not playing his best football, he did lead the team to a 7-4 record. That means that Cutler managed just two wins in 5 starts and a seat on the couch for the playoffs. As usual, the running game spit out another 1000 yard back as Tatum Bell ran for 1025 yards and 2 TD’s. The defense played lights out early in the year but tailed off and finished 14th in yards given up and 8th in points given up. Unfortunately they have a large void to fill with the tragic murder of CB Darrent Williams.

The Oakland Raiders failed to improve on their 4-12 record of 2005 as they finished with a 2-14 record in 2006. Owner Al Davis was quick to show HC Art Shell the door as the Raiders are set to have their third coach in as many years. This team is in shambles on offense as there are no signs of leadership. I would not be surprised to see both Randy Moss and Jerry Porter in different uniforms next season. If that is the case, that puts the Raiders in a tough draft spot this year. Will they draft a Calvin Johnson to fill that void or will they make a run at a young franchise QB like Brady Quinn or even take a chance with Adrian Peterson as a possible franchise running back. There will be plenty of talent of available when their time comes in this year’s draft.

Stay tuned for the NFC breakdown in Part 2 due next week.

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